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Zenit vs Akhmat — Cup 2019

Zenit
Zenit
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Akhmat
Akhmat
9/17/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 4Gazprom Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zenit63%
×Draw21%
Akhmat16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit
1.96
Akhmat
0.86

Zenit creates 128% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 21 away

creates per match

Zenit
2.39
Akhmat
1.29

allows per match

Zenit
0.43
Akhmat
1.52

finishing

Zenit+0.00on par
Akhmat+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit ↓

Akhmat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zenit or draw
84%
Zenit or Akhmat
79%
Draw or Akhmat
37%

Winning margin

Zenit wins by 2+
38%
Akhmat wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zenit 1+ goals
86%
Zenit 2+ goals
58%
Zenit 3+ goals
31%
Akhmat 1+ goals
58%
Akhmat 2+ goals
21%
Akhmat 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zenit (draw refunded)
80%
Akhmat (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit at home — creates 2.39, concedes 0.43 · 23 matches

Akhmat away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.52 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit attack 2.39 + Akhmat defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.96

Akhmat attack 1.29 + Zenit defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Zenit scores more
63%
level
21%
Akhmat scores more
16%

Zenit at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Zenit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zenit 2 – 1 Akhmat

Zenit beat Akhmat 2-1 in Cup on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Gazprom Arena in Saint Petersburg.