Zenit U20 4–0 Ural U20: Result & Stats

Zenit U20

FT

4 – 0

Ural U20

10/28/2020

Youth Championship · Round 8Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zenit U2065%

×Draw20%

Ural U2015%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit U20Expected goals in this matchUral U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.86

Zenit U20

2.08

Ural U20

0.86

Zenit U20 creates 142% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 99 away

2.10

creates per match

1.01

0.71

allows per match

2.06

creates per match

Zenit U20

2.10

Ural U20

1.01

allows per match

Zenit U20

0.71

Ural U20

2.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit U20+0.00on par

Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U20 ↓

Ural U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Zenit U20 or draw

85%

Zenit U20 or Ural U20

80%

Draw or Ural U20

35%

Winning margin

Zenit U20 wins by 2+

41%

Ural U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zenit U20 1+ goals

87%

Zenit U20 2+ goals

61%

Zenit U20 3+ goals

34%

Ural U20 1+ goals

58%

Ural U20 2+ goals

21%

Ural U20 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zenit U20 (draw refunded)

82%

Ural U20 (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U20 attack 2.10 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.08

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Zenit U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Zenit U20 scores more

65%

level

20%

Ural U20 scores more

15%

Zenit U20 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Zenit U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff