Zenit U20 4–0 Strogino U20: Result & Stats

Zenit U20

FT

4 – 0

Strogino U20

11/25/2020

Youth Championship · Round 11Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Zenit U2058%

×Draw21%

Strogino U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit U20Expected goals in this matchStrogino U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.08

Zenit U20

2.00

Strogino U20

1.08

Zenit U20 creates 85% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 56 away

2.10

creates per match

1.45

0.71

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Zenit U20

2.10

Strogino U20

1.45

allows per match

Zenit U20

0.71

Strogino U20

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit U20+0.00on par

Strogino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U20 ↓

Strogino U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zenit U20 or draw

80%

Zenit U20 or Strogino U20

79%

Draw or Strogino U20

42%

Winning margin

Zenit U20 wins by 2+

35%

Strogino U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Zenit U20 1+ goals

86%

Zenit U20 2+ goals

59%

Zenit U20 3+ goals

32%

Strogino U20 1+ goals

66%

Strogino U20 2+ goals

29%

Strogino U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Zenit U20 (draw refunded)

74%

Strogino U20 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Strogino U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U20 attack 2.10 + Strogino U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.00

Strogino U20 attack 1.45 + Zenit U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zenit U20 scores more

58%

level

21%

Strogino U20 scores more

20%

Zenit U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zenit U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff