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Zenit U20 vs Rostov U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Zenit U20
Zenit U20
FT
4 – 1
Rostov U20
Rostov U20
10/18/2019Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 13Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zenit U2059%
×Draw21%
Rostov U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit U20
2.05
Rostov U20
1.10

Zenit U20 creates 86% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 20 away

creates per match

Zenit U20
2.10
Rostov U20
1.50

allows per match

Zenit U20
0.71
Rostov U20
2.00

finishing

Zenit U20+0.00on par
Rostov U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U20 ↓

Rostov U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zenit U20 or draw
80%
Zenit U20 or Rostov U20
79%
Draw or Rostov U20
41%

Winning margin

Zenit U20 wins by 2+
36%
Rostov U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zenit U20 1+ goals
87%
Zenit U20 2+ goals
61%
Zenit U20 3+ goals
33%
Rostov U20 1+ goals
67%
Rostov U20 2+ goals
30%
Rostov U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zenit U20 (draw refunded)
75%
Rostov U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U20 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Rostov U20 away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U20 attack 2.10 + Rostov U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.05

Rostov U20 attack 1.50 + Zenit U20 defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zenit U20 scores more
59%
level
21%
Rostov U20 scores more
20%

Zenit U20 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zenit U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Zenit U20 4–1 Rostov U20

Zenit U20 beat Rostov U20 4-1 in Youth Championship on October 18, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.