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Zenit U19 vs Strogino U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Zenit U19
Zenit U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Strogino U20
Strogino U20
11/4/2022Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 17Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Zenit U1961%
×Draw19%
Strogino U2020%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit U19
2.36
Strogino U20
1.29

Zenit U19 creates 83% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 56 away

creates per match

Zenit U19
2.81
Strogino U20
1.45

allows per match

Zenit U19
1.13
Strogino U20
1.91

finishing

Zenit U19+0.00on par
Strogino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit U19 ↓

Strogino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zenit U19 or draw
80%
Zenit U19 or Strogino U20
81%
Draw or Strogino U20
39%

Winning margin

Zenit U19 wins by 2+
39%
Strogino U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zenit U19 1+ goals
90%
Zenit U19 2+ goals
68%
Zenit U19 3+ goals
41%
Strogino U20 1+ goals
72%
Strogino U20 2+ goals
37%
Strogino U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zenit U19 (draw refunded)
75%
Strogino U20 (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit U19 at home — creates 2.81, concedes 1.13 · 80 matches

Strogino U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit U19 attack 2.81 + Strogino U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.36

Strogino U20 attack 1.45 + Zenit U19 defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zenit U19 scores more
61%
level
19%
Strogino U20 scores more
20%

Zenit U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zenit U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Zenit U19 2–0 Strogino U20

Zenit U19 beat Strogino U20 2-0 in Youth Championship on November 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.