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Zenit Tallinn vs Tulevik — Cup 2026

Zenit Tallinn
Zenit Tallinn
FT
1 – 6
HT: 0 – 3
Tulevik
Tulevikadvanced
R. Tomson 50'
K. Kask 83', 42'
K. Kruusmäe 70'
K. Kähr 48'
H. Boukhelkhal 43', 39'
8/24/2022CupCup · Round of 32Kernu PK staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zenit Tallinn29%
×Draw16%
Tulevik55%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Tallinn
3.09
Tulevik
4.20

Tulevik creates 36% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zenit Tallinn
2.33
Tulevik
3.57

allows per match

Zenit Tallinn
4.83
Tulevik
3.86

finishing

Zenit Tallinn+0.00on par
Tulevik+0.00on par

Total goals

97%Over
  • Over97
  • Under3

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

94%Yes
  • Yes94
  • No6

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Tallinn ↓

Tulevik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–22%
1–33%
1–43%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–24%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–23%
4–34%
4–44%

Most likely 2–3 (5%) · grid covers 57% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
97%3%3.5
92%8%4.5
82%18%

Double chance

Zenit Tallinn or draw
45%
Zenit Tallinn or Tulevik
84%
Draw or Tulevik
71%

Winning margin

Zenit Tallinn wins by 2+
16%
Tulevik wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Zenit Tallinn 1+ goals
95%
Zenit Tallinn 2+ goals
81%
Zenit Tallinn 3+ goals
58%
Tulevik 1+ goals
98%
Tulevik 2+ goals
91%
Tulevik 3+ goals
76%

Draw no bet

Zenit Tallinn (draw refunded)
34%
Tulevik (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
93%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Tallinn at home — creates 2.33, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

Tulevik away — creates 3.57, concedes 3.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Tallinn attack 2.33 + Tulevik defence 3.86 → ÷2 → 3.09

Tulevik attack 3.57 + Zenit Tallinn defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 4.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zenit Tallinn scores more
29%
level
16%
Tulevik scores more
55%

Tulevik at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Tulevik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
H. Boukhelkhal
42'
K. Kask
43'
H. Boukhelkhal
48'
K. Kähr
50'
R. Tomson
70'
K. Kruusmäe
83'
K. Kask

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Zenit Tallinn 1–6 Tulevik

Tulevik beat Zenit Tallinn 6-1 in Cup on August 24, 2022.

Goals: H. Boukhelkhal (39', 43'), K. Kask (42', 83'), K. Kähr (48'), R. Tomson (50'), K. Kruusmäe (70').

The match was played at Kernu PK staadion in Kernu.