Zenit Tallinn 4–2 Tallinna Kalev II: Result & Stats

Zenit Tallinn

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Tallinna Kalev II

I. Teever 72', 16'

T. Kink 38', 4'

B. Bachmann 48'

R. Tukia 31'

7/5/2021

Cup · 64th FinalsKernu PK staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zenit Tallinn25%

×Draw16%

Tallinna Kalev II59%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit TallinnExpected goals in this matchTallinna Kalev II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

3.87

Zenit Tallinn

2.56

Tallinna Kalev II

3.87

Tallinna Kalev II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

2.33

creates per match

2.90

4.83

allows per match

2.80

creates per match

Zenit Tallinn

2.33

Tallinna Kalev II

2.90

allows per match

Zenit Tallinn

4.83

Tallinna Kalev II

2.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit Tallinn+0.00on par

Tallinna Kalev II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over95
Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes90
No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Tallinn ↓

Tallinna Kalev II →

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–32%

0–42%

1–00%

1–12%

1–23%

1–34%

1–44%

2–01%

2–12%

2–24%

2–36%

2–46%

3–01%

3–12%

3–24%

3–35%

3–45%

4–00%

4–11%

4–22%

4–33%

4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

99%1%2.5

95%5%3.5

87%13%4.5

74%26%

Double chance

Zenit Tallinn or draw

41%

Zenit Tallinn or Tallinna Kalev II

84%

Draw or Tallinna Kalev II

75%

Winning margin

Zenit Tallinn wins by 2+

13%

Tallinna Kalev II wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Zenit Tallinn 1+ goals

92%

Zenit Tallinn 2+ goals

72%

Zenit Tallinn 3+ goals

46%

Tallinna Kalev II 1+ goals

98%

Tallinna Kalev II 2+ goals

89%

Tallinna Kalev II 3+ goals

71%

Draw no bet

Zenit Tallinn (draw refunded)

29%

Tallinna Kalev II (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

88%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zenit Tallinn at home — creates 2.33, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

Tallinna Kalev II away — creates 2.90, concedes 2.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Tallinn attack 2.33 + Tallinna Kalev II defence 2.80 → ÷2 → 2.56

Tallinna Kalev II attack 2.90 + Zenit Tallinn defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zenit Tallinn scores more

25%

level

16%

Tallinna Kalev II scores more

59%

Tallinna Kalev II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Tallinna Kalev II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

31'

38'

48'

72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff