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Zenit Tallinn vs Poseidon — Cup 2026

Zenit Tallinn
Zenit Tallinnadvanced
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 3
Poseidon
Poseidon
R. Tomson 85', 21'
I. Teever 64'
T. Neemelo 38'
T. Kink 15'
R. Kiviselg 59'
A. Issakov 45+1'
A. Šalda 37'
6/29/2022CupCup · Round of 64Hiiu staadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zenit Tallinn21%
×Draw15%
Poseidon64%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Tallinn
2.37
Poseidon
4.02

Poseidon creates 70% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zenit Tallinn
2.33
Poseidon
3.20

allows per match

Zenit Tallinn
4.83
Poseidon
2.40

finishing

Zenit Tallinn+0.00on par
Poseidon+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

89%Yes
  • Yes89
  • No11

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Tallinn ↓

Poseidon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–42%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–35%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–36%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–23%
3–35%
3–45%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–3 (6%) · grid covers 65% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
73%27%

Double chance

Zenit Tallinn or draw
36%
Zenit Tallinn or Poseidon
85%
Draw or Poseidon
79%

Winning margin

Zenit Tallinn wins by 2+
10%
Poseidon wins by 2+
46%

Team goals

Zenit Tallinn 1+ goals
91%
Zenit Tallinn 2+ goals
68%
Zenit Tallinn 3+ goals
42%
Poseidon 1+ goals
98%
Poseidon 2+ goals
90%
Poseidon 3+ goals
73%

Draw no bet

Zenit Tallinn (draw refunded)
25%
Poseidon (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
87%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Tallinn at home — creates 2.33, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

Poseidon away — creates 3.20, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Tallinn attack 2.33 + Poseidon defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.37

Poseidon attack 3.20 + Zenit Tallinn defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 4.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zenit Tallinn scores more
21%
level
15%
Poseidon scores more
64%

Poseidon at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Poseidon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
T. Kink
21'
R. Tomson
37'
A. Šalda
38'
T. Neemelo
45+1'
A. Issakov
59'
R. Kiviselg
64'
I. Teever
85'
R. Tomson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Zenit Tallinn 5–3 Poseidon

Zenit Tallinn beat Poseidon 5-3 in Cup on June 29, 2022.

Goals: T. Kink (15'), R. Tomson (21', 85'), A. Šalda (37'), T. Neemelo (38'), A. Issakov (45+1'), R. Kiviselg (59'), I. Teever (64').

The match was played at Hiiu staadion in Tallinn.