Zenit Saint Petersburg 4–1 Tambov: Result & Stats

Zenit Saint Petersburg

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tambov

8/22/2020

Premier League · Round 4Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg71%

×Draw18%

Tambov11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit Saint PetersburgExpected goals in this matchTambov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

0.78

Zenit Saint Petersburg

2.26

Tambov

0.78

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 190% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 30 away

2.53

creates per match

0.80

0.76

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg

2.53

Tambov

0.80

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg

0.76

Tambov

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Tambov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Tambov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw

89%

Zenit Saint Petersburg or Tambov

82%

Draw or Tambov

29%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+

47%

Tambov wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals

89%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals

66%

Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals

39%

Tambov 1+ goals

54%

Tambov 2+ goals

18%

Tambov 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)

86%

Tambov (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Tambov away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.53 + Tambov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

Tambov attack 0.80 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more

71%

level

18%

Tambov scores more

11%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff