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Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow — Premier League 2018

Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
3/2/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Saint-Petersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg57%
×Draw22%
Spartak Moscow21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.90
Spartak Moscow
1.06

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 79% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
2.53
Spartak Moscow
1.35

allows per match

Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.76
Spartak Moscow
1.26

finishing

Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Saint Petersburg ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zenit Saint Petersburg or draw
79%
Zenit Saint Petersburg or Spartak Moscow
78%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
43%

Winning margin

Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
33%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
85%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
56%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
29%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
65%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
29%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
73%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Saint Petersburg at home — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 120 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 2.53 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.90

Spartak Moscow attack 1.35 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
57%
level
22%
Spartak Moscow scores more
21%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zenit Saint Petersburg 0 – 0 Spartak Moscow

Zenit Saint Petersburg and Spartak Moscow drew 0-0 in Premier League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Saint-Petersburg Stadium in St. Petersburg.