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Zenit Penza vs Peresvet Podolsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Peresvet Podolsk
Peresvet Podolsk
6/10/2023Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 12Stadion Soyuz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Zenit Penza51%
×Draw22%
Peresvet Podolsk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Penza
1.90
Peresvet Podolsk
1.33

Zenit Penza creates 43% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 42 away

creates per match

Zenit Penza
1.27
Peresvet Podolsk
1.24

allows per match

Zenit Penza
1.43
Peresvet Podolsk
2.52

finishing

Zenit Penza+0.00on par
Peresvet Podolsk+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Penza ↓

Peresvet Podolsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zenit Penza or draw
73%
Zenit Penza or Peresvet Podolsk
78%
Draw or Peresvet Podolsk
49%

Winning margin

Zenit Penza wins by 2+
29%
Peresvet Podolsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zenit Penza 1+ goals
85%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
56%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
29%
Peresvet Podolsk 1+ goals
74%
Peresvet Podolsk 2+ goals
38%
Peresvet Podolsk 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
65%
Peresvet Podolsk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Penza at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

Peresvet Podolsk away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Penza attack 1.27 + Peresvet Podolsk defence 2.52 → ÷2 → 1.90

Peresvet Podolsk attack 1.24 + Zenit Penza defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zenit Penza scores more
51%
level
22%
Peresvet Podolsk scores more
27%

Zenit Penza at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zenit Penza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Zenit Penza 5–1 Peresvet Podolsk

Zenit Penza beat Peresvet Podolsk 5-1 in Second League - Group 3 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Soyuz in Penza.