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Zenit Penza vs Khimki II — Second League - Group 3 2020

Zenit Penza
Zenit Penza
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Khimki II
Khimki II
9/22/2024Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24Stadion Pervomayskiy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Zenit Penza41%
×Draw25%
Khimki II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Penza
1.54
Khimki II
1.40

Zenit Penza creates 10% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 74 away

creates per match

Zenit Penza
1.27
Khimki II
1.36

allows per match

Zenit Penza
1.43
Khimki II
1.82

finishing

Zenit Penza+0.00on par
Khimki II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Penza ↓

Khimki II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zenit Penza or draw
65%
Zenit Penza or Khimki II
75%
Draw or Khimki II
59%

Winning margin

Zenit Penza wins by 2+
20%
Khimki II wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Zenit Penza 1+ goals
79%
Zenit Penza 2+ goals
45%
Zenit Penza 3+ goals
20%
Khimki II 1+ goals
75%
Khimki II 2+ goals
41%
Khimki II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)
54%
Khimki II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Penza at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.43 · 77 matches

Khimki II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Penza attack 1.27 + Khimki II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Khimki II attack 1.36 + Zenit Penza defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zenit Penza scores more
41%
level
25%
Khimki II scores more
35%

Zenit Penza at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zenit Penza will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Zenit Penza 3–2 Khimki II

Zenit Penza beat Khimki II 3-2 in Second League - Group 3 on September 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Pervomayskiy in Penza.