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Zenit Izhevsk vs Tyumen — Cup 2019

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Tyumen
Tyumen
8/5/2020CupCup · 1st RoundStadion Kupol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk29%
×Draw24%
Tyumen46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.25
Tyumen
1.63

Tyumen creates 30% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.50
Tyumen
1.43

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.83
Tyumen
1.00

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
Tyumen+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Tyumen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
54%
Zenit Izhevsk or Tyumen
76%
Draw or Tyumen
71%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
12%
Tyumen wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
71%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
36%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
13%
Tyumen 1+ goals
80%
Tyumen 2+ goals
48%
Tyumen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
39%
Tyumen (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Tyumen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.50 + Tyumen defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Tyumen attack 1.43 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
29%
level
24%
Tyumen scores more
46%

Tyumen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Izhevsk vs Tyumen

Tyumen beat Zenit Izhevsk 2-1 in Cup on August 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Kupol in Izhevsk.