Tyumen 3–0 Zenit Izhevsk: Result & Stats

Tyumen

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Zenit Izhevsk

11/14/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion Geolog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Tyumen63%

×Draw21%

Zenit Izhevsk16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TyumenExpected goals in this matchZenit Izhevsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.90

Tyumen

2.00

Zenit Izhevsk

0.90

Tyumen creates 122% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 41 away

2.33

creates per match

0.93

0.86

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Tyumen

2.33

Zenit Izhevsk

0.93

allows per match

Tyumen

0.86

Zenit Izhevsk

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tyumen+0.00on par

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tyumen ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Tyumen or draw

84%

Tyumen or Zenit Izhevsk

79%

Draw or Zenit Izhevsk

37%

Winning margin

Tyumen wins by 2+

38%

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Tyumen 1+ goals

86%

Tyumen 2+ goals

59%

Tyumen 3+ goals

32%

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

59%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

23%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Tyumen (draw refunded)

79%

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tyumen at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.86 · 42 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tyumen attack 2.33 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 2.00

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Tyumen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Tyumen scores more

63%

level

21%

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

16%

Tyumen at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Tyumen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff