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Zenit Izhevsk vs Torpedo Miass — Cup 2019

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
Preview
15:00
Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
8/12/2026CupCup · Round of 32
Big match
41%
Torpedo Miass
model favours
35%24%41%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk35%
×Draw24%
Torpedo Miass41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.45
Torpedo Miass
1.61

Torpedo Miass creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.50
Torpedo Miass
1.40

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.83
Torpedo Miass
1.40

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
Torpedo Miass+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Torpedo Miass →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
59%
Zenit Izhevsk or Torpedo Miass
76%
Draw or Torpedo Miass
65%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
16%
Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
77%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
42%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
18%
Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
80%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
48%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
45%
Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Torpedo Miass away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.50 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.45

Torpedo Miass attack 1.40 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
35%
level
24%
Torpedo Miass scores more
41%

Torpedo Miass at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Izhevsk
LDWD
Miass
DLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Zenit Izhevsk host Torpedo Miass

August 12, 2026: Zenit Izhevsk take on Torpedo Miass in Cup. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.