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Torpedo Miass vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Torpedo Miass
Torpedo Miass
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
11/9/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Torpedo Miass45%
×Draw25%
Zenit Izhevsk29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torpedo Miass
1.52
Zenit Izhevsk
1.17

Torpedo Miass creates 30% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 41 away

creates per match

Torpedo Miass
1.37
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Torpedo Miass
1.40
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Torpedo Miass+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torpedo Miass ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torpedo Miass or draw
71%
Torpedo Miass or Zenit Izhevsk
75%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
55%

Winning margin

Torpedo Miass wins by 2+
23%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Torpedo Miass 1+ goals
78%
Torpedo Miass 2+ goals
45%
Torpedo Miass 3+ goals
20%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
69%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
33%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torpedo Miass (draw refunded)
61%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torpedo Miass at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torpedo Miass attack 1.37 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Torpedo Miass defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torpedo Miass scores more
45%
level
25%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
29%

Torpedo Miass at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torpedo Miass will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 4: Torpedo Miass 1–2 Zenit Izhevsk

Zenit Izhevsk beat Torpedo Miass 2-1 in Second League - Group 4 on November 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Trud in Miass.