Zenit Izhevsk 0–1 Spartak Tuymazy: Result & Stats

Zenit Izhevsk

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Spartak Tuymazy

I. Shalonikov 36'

10/10/2021

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 14Stadion Central'nyj Zenit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk49%

×Draw22%

Spartak Tuymazy29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit IzhevskExpected goals in this matchSpartak Tuymazy

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.47

Zenit Izhevsk

1.98

Spartak Tuymazy

1.47

Zenit Izhevsk creates 35% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 14 away

1.26

creates per match

1.36

1.57

allows per match

2.71

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk

1.26

Spartak Tuymazy

1.36

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk

1.57

Spartak Tuymazy

2.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Spartak Tuymazy+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Spartak Tuymazy →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw

71%

Zenit Izhevsk or Spartak Tuymazy

78%

Draw or Spartak Tuymazy

51%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

28%

Spartak Tuymazy wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

86%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

59%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

31%

Spartak Tuymazy 1+ goals

77%

Spartak Tuymazy 2+ goals

43%

Spartak Tuymazy 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

63%

Spartak Tuymazy (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Spartak Tuymazy away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.26 + Spartak Tuymazy defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 1.98

Spartak Tuymazy attack 1.36 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

49%

level

22%

Spartak Tuymazy scores more

29%

Zenit Izhevsk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zenit Izhevsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

34'

S. Peterson

36'

I. Shalonikov

44'

S. Efrosinjev

46'

E. Dozmorov← A. Bolotin

48'

A. Shabichev

54'

I. Badrtdinov

62'

D. Blagodatskikh

62'

D. Blagodatskikh← Y. Krasnov

62'

F. Dvornikov← A. Russkikh

65'

E. Dozmorov

71'

S. Latsevich← R. Simonov

71'

D. Garifullin← A. Dmitryuk

71'

B. Khaernasov← I. Badrtdinov

78'

V. Zhuravlev

90'

D. Garifullin

90+3'

A. Zhugin← D. Garifullin

Zenit

Spartak

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Khafizov

46'▲E. Dozmorov←▼A. Bolotin

62'▲D. Blagodatskikh←▼Y. Krasnov

62'▲F. Dvornikov←▼A. Russkikh

71'▲S. Latsevich←▼R. Simonov

Zenit Izhevsk substitutes

DozmorovBlagodatskikhDvornikovLatsevich

Manager: N. Khabibullin

71'▲D. Garifullin←▼A. Dmitryuk

71'▲B. Khaernasov←▼I. Badrtdinov

90+3'▲A. Zhugin←▼D. Garifullin

Spartak Tuymazy substitutes

GarifullinKhaernasovZhugin