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Zenit Izhevsk vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Cup 2019

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
8/25/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 1Stadion Kupol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk39%
×Draw22%
Metallurg Lipetsk39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.75
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.50
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.67

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.83
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
61%
Zenit Izhevsk or Metallurg Lipetsk
78%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
61%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
20%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
83%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
52%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
25%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
83%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
52%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
50%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.50 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.67 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
39%
level
22%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
39%

Zenit Izhevsk at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zenit Izhevsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Izhevsk vs Metallurg Lipetsk

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Zenit Izhevsk 2-1 in Cup on August 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Kupol in Izhevsk.