Zenit Izhevsk 5–1 Khimik Vurnary: Result & Stats

Zenit Izhevsk

FT

5 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Khimik Vurnary

9/14/2022

Cup · Regions Path - 3rd RoundStadion Kupol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk62%

×Draw18%

Khimik Vurnary20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit IzhevskExpected goals in this matchKhimik Vurnary

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.58

1.42

Zenit Izhevsk

2.58

Khimik Vurnary

1.42

Zenit Izhevsk creates 82% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.83

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk

1.50

Khimik Vurnary

1.00

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk

1.83

Khimik Vurnary

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Khimik Vurnary+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Khimik Vurnary →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw

80%

Zenit Izhevsk or Khimik Vurnary

82%

Draw or Khimik Vurnary

38%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+

41%

Khimik Vurnary wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals

92%

Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals

72%

Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals

47%

Khimik Vurnary 1+ goals

76%

Khimik Vurnary 2+ goals

41%

Khimik Vurnary 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)

76%

Khimik Vurnary (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Khimik Vurnary away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.50 + Khimik Vurnary defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.58

Khimik Vurnary attack 1.00 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more

62%

level

18%

Khimik Vurnary scores more

20%

Zenit Izhevsk at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zenit Izhevsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff