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Zenit Izhevsk vs Irtysh Omsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Irtysh Omsk
Irtysh Omsk
4/16/2023Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Shkola Futbola Zenit Izhevsk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk34%
×Draw24%
Irtysh Omsk42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.46
Irtysh Omsk
1.64

Irtysh Omsk creates 12% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.26
Irtysh Omsk
1.70

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.57
Irtysh Omsk
1.67

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
Irtysh Omsk+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Irtysh Omsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
58%
Zenit Izhevsk or Irtysh Omsk
76%
Draw or Irtysh Omsk
66%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
16%
Irtysh Omsk wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
77%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
43%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
18%
Irtysh Omsk 1+ goals
81%
Irtysh Omsk 2+ goals
49%
Irtysh Omsk 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
45%
Irtysh Omsk (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Irtysh Omsk away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.67 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.26 + Irtysh Omsk defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.46

Irtysh Omsk attack 1.70 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
34%
level
24%
Irtysh Omsk scores more
42%

Irtysh Omsk at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Irtysh Omsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Izhevsk vs Irtysh Omsk

Zenit Izhevsk and Irtysh Omsk drew 1-1 in Second League - Group 4 on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at Shkola Futbola Zenit Izhevsk in Izhevsk.