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Zenit Izhevsk vs Dinamo Barnaul — Second League - Group 4 2020

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
4/27/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 21Stadion Central'nyj Zenit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk44%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Barnaul32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.65
Dinamo Barnaul
1.38

Zenit Izhevsk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 83 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.26
Dinamo Barnaul
1.18

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.57
Dinamo Barnaul
2.05

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

Dinamo Barnaul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
68%
Zenit Izhevsk or Dinamo Barnaul
76%
Draw or Dinamo Barnaul
56%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
23%
Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
81%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
49%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
75%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
40%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
58%
Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.57 · 42 matches

Dinamo Barnaul away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.05 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.26 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.18 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
44%
level
24%
Dinamo Barnaul scores more
32%

Zenit Izhevsk at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zenit Izhevsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit Izhevsk vs Dinamo Barnaul

Dinamo Barnaul beat Zenit Izhevsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 4 on April 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj Zenit in Izhevsk.