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Dinamo Barnaul vs Zenit Izhevsk — Second League - Group 4 2020

Dinamo Barnaul
Dinamo Barnaul
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
7/23/2021Second League - Group 4Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 2Stadion Dinamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Dinamo Barnaul47%
×Draw26%
Zenit Izhevsk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Barnaul
1.52
Zenit Izhevsk
1.08

Dinamo Barnaul creates 41% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 41 away

creates per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.37
Zenit Izhevsk
0.93

allows per match

Dinamo Barnaul
1.23
Zenit Izhevsk
1.68

finishing

Dinamo Barnaul+0.00on par
Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Barnaul ↓

Zenit Izhevsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Dinamo Barnaul or draw
73%
Dinamo Barnaul or Zenit Izhevsk
74%
Draw or Zenit Izhevsk
53%

Winning margin

Dinamo Barnaul wins by 2+
24%
Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Dinamo Barnaul 1+ goals
78%
Dinamo Barnaul 2+ goals
45%
Dinamo Barnaul 3+ goals
20%
Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
66%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
29%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Barnaul (draw refunded)
64%
Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Barnaul at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.23 · 84 matches

Zenit Izhevsk away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.68 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Barnaul attack 1.37 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Zenit Izhevsk attack 0.93 + Dinamo Barnaul defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dinamo Barnaul scores more
47%
level
26%
Zenit Izhevsk scores more
27%

Dinamo Barnaul at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dinamo Barnaul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Barnaul vs Zenit Izhevsk

Dinamo Barnaul beat Zenit Izhevsk 3-1 in Second League - Group 4 on July 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Dinamo in Barnaul.