Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zenit Izhevsk vs CSKA Moscow — Cup 2019

Zenit Izhevsk
Zenit Izhevsk
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
CSKA Moscow
CSKA Moscow
9/23/2021CupCup · Group Stage - 3Stadion Central'nyj Zenit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Zenit Izhevsk27%
×Draw24%
CSKA Moscow49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit Izhevsk
1.21
CSKA Moscow
1.71

CSKA Moscow creates 41% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

creates per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.50
CSKA Moscow
1.58

allows per match

Zenit Izhevsk
1.83
CSKA Moscow
0.92

finishing

Zenit Izhevsk+0.00on par
CSKA Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Izhevsk ↓

CSKA Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zenit Izhevsk or draw
51%
Zenit Izhevsk or CSKA Moscow
76%
Draw or CSKA Moscow
73%

Winning margin

Zenit Izhevsk wins by 2+
11%
CSKA Moscow wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Zenit Izhevsk 1+ goals
70%
Zenit Izhevsk 2+ goals
34%
Zenit Izhevsk 3+ goals
12%
CSKA Moscow 1+ goals
82%
CSKA Moscow 2+ goals
51%
CSKA Moscow 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Zenit Izhevsk (draw refunded)
36%
CSKA Moscow (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Izhevsk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

CSKA Moscow away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Izhevsk attack 1.50 + CSKA Moscow defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.21

CSKA Moscow attack 1.58 + Zenit Izhevsk defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zenit Izhevsk scores more
27%
level
24%
CSKA Moscow scores more
49%

CSKA Moscow at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "CSKA Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Zenit Izhevsk 0–4 CSKA Moscow

CSKA Moscow beat Zenit Izhevsk 4-0 in Cup on September 23, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj Zenit in Izhevsk.