Zenit Irkutsk 4–0 Kolomna: Result & Stats

Zenit Irkutsk

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kolomna

8/23/2020

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 3Stadion Trud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zenit Irkutsk61%

×Draw22%

Kolomna17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit IrkutskExpected goals in this matchKolomna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

0.84

Zenit Irkutsk

1.84

Kolomna

0.84

Zenit Irkutsk creates 119% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

1.71

creates per match

0.83

0.86

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Zenit Irkutsk

1.71

Kolomna

0.83

allows per match

Zenit Irkutsk

0.86

Kolomna

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit Irkutsk+0.00on par

Kolomna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit Irkutsk ↓

Kolomna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Zenit Irkutsk or draw

83%

Zenit Irkutsk or Kolomna

78%

Draw or Kolomna

39%

Winning margin

Zenit Irkutsk wins by 2+

36%

Kolomna wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zenit Irkutsk 1+ goals

84%

Zenit Irkutsk 2+ goals

55%

Zenit Irkutsk 3+ goals

28%

Kolomna 1+ goals

57%

Kolomna 2+ goals

21%

Kolomna 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Zenit Irkutsk (draw refunded)

78%

Kolomna (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit Irkutsk at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Kolomna away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.97 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit Irkutsk attack 1.71 + Kolomna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.84

Kolomna attack 0.83 + Zenit Irkutsk defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zenit Irkutsk scores more

61%

level

22%

Kolomna scores more

17%

Zenit Irkutsk at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zenit Irkutsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff