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Zenit 2 vs Tom Tomsk — First League 2018

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tom Tomsk
Tom Tomsk
11/14/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 22Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zenit 237%
×Draw28%
Tom Tomsk35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
1.23
Tom Tomsk
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 74 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
1.15
Tom Tomsk
0.91

allows per match

Zenit 2
1.45
Tom Tomsk
1.32

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Tom Tomsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
65%
Zenit 2 or Tom Tomsk
72%
Draw or Tom Tomsk
63%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
16%
Tom Tomsk wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
71%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
35%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
13%
Tom Tomsk 1+ goals
69%
Tom Tomsk 2+ goals
33%
Tom Tomsk 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
52%
Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

Tom Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 1.15 + Tom Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Tom Tomsk attack 0.91 + Zenit 2 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
37%
level
28%
Tom Tomsk scores more
35%

Zenit 2 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zenit 2 vs Tom Tomsk

Tom Tomsk beat Zenit 2 1-0 in First League on November 14, 2018.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg)).