Zenit 2 1–1 Shinnik Yaroslavl: Result & Stats

Zenit 2

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Shinnik Yaroslavl

I. Zuev 44'

M. Zemskov 28'

11/5/2016

First League · Round 20Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zenit 242%

×Draw27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit 2Expected goals in this matchShinnik Yaroslavl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.14

Zenit 2

1.37

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.14

Zenit 2 creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 126 away

1.26

creates per match

0.99

1.29

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Zenit 2

1.26

Shinnik Yaroslavl

0.99

allows per match

Zenit 2

1.29

Shinnik Yaroslavl

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Shinnik Yaroslavl+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Shinnik Yaroslavl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw

69%

Zenit 2 or Shinnik Yaroslavl

73%

Draw or Shinnik Yaroslavl

58%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

20%

Shinnik Yaroslavl wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals

75%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

40%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

16%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 1+ goals

68%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 2+ goals

32%

Shinnik Yaroslavl 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

57%

Shinnik Yaroslavl (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

Shinnik Yaroslavl away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.48 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 1.26 + Shinnik Yaroslavl defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.37

Shinnik Yaroslavl attack 0.99 + Zenit 2 defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zenit 2 scores more

42%

level

27%

Shinnik Yaroslavl scores more

31%

Zenit 2 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

M. Zemskov

44'

I. Zuev

46'

I. Podolyak← M. Sultonov

55'

P. Dolgov← A. Evseev

68'

M. Pronichev← A. Isaev

68'

D. Belov← M. Zemskov

72'

A. Vyatkin← K. Zyryanov

76'

V. Oslonovsky← A. Mitasov

86'

K. Kostin← A. Gasilin

90+1'

K. Troyanov← E. Yatchenko

Zenit

Shinnik

16

Yashin

23

▼

4

24

78

5

11

▼

Mitasov

8

⚽

▼

Zemskov

52

Netfullin

37

Sirotov

22

▼

Sultonov

71

Baburin

58

⚽

32

75

26

18

▼

Zyryanov

65

Yaschuk

94

▼

Evseev

40

Bavin

48

▼

Gasilin

25

▼

Isaev

Manager: V. Radimov

55'▲P. Dolgov←▼A. Evseev

68'▲M. Pronichev←▼A. Isaev

72'▲A. Vyatkin←▼K. Zyryanov

86'▲K. Kostin←▼A. Gasilin

Zenit 2 substitutes

92Dolgov34Pronichev87Vyatkin45Kostin70Goylo88Salamatov97Kamyshev

Manager: A. Pobegalov

46'▲I. Podolyak←▼M. Sultonov

68'▲D. Belov←▼M. Zemskov

76'▲V. Oslonovsky←▼A. Mitasov

90+1'▲K. Troyanov←▼E. Yatchenko

Shinnik Yaroslavl substitutes

15Podolyak95Belov77Oslonovsky80Troyanov1Malyshev2Ndri3Tskhovrebov