Zenit 2 2–2 Olimp-Dolgoprudny II: Result & Stats

Zenit 2

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

6/5/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 10Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Zenit 251%

×Draw24%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit 2Expected goals in this matchOlimp-Dolgoprudny II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.13

Zenit 2

1.73

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.13

Zenit 2 creates 53% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 14 away

2.10

creates per match

1.29

0.96

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Zenit 2

2.10

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.29

allows per match

Zenit 2

0.96

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw

75%

Zenit 2 or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

76%

Draw or Olimp-Dolgoprudny II

49%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

28%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals

82%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

52%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

25%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 1+ goals

68%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 2+ goals

31%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

67%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.10 + Olimp-Dolgoprudny II defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II attack 1.29 + Zenit 2 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zenit 2 scores more

51%

level

24%

Olimp-Dolgoprudny II scores more

25%

Zenit 2 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff