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Zenit 2 vs Khimki — First League 2018

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Khimki
Khimki
9/8/2018First LeagueFirst League · Round 10Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Zenit 231%
×Draw26%
Khimki43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
1.17
Khimki
1.42

Khimki creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 51 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
1.15
Khimki
1.39

allows per match

Zenit 2
1.45
Khimki
1.18

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Khimki+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Khimki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
57%
Zenit 2 or Khimki
74%
Draw or Khimki
69%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
13%
Khimki wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
69%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
33%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
11%
Khimki 1+ goals
76%
Khimki 2+ goals
41%
Khimki 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
42%
Khimki (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

Khimki away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 1.15 + Khimki defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Khimki attack 1.39 + Zenit 2 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
31%
level
26%
Khimki scores more
43%

Khimki at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Khimki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Zenit 2 2–2 Khimki

Zenit 2 and Khimki drew 2-2 in First League on September 8, 2018.

The match was played at Malaya Sportivnaya Arena (Sankt-Peterburg (St. Petersburg)).