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Zenit 2 vs Dinamo Moskva II — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
Preview
15:00
Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
7/31/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Division A Silver - 3
Big match
56%
Zenit 2
model favours
56%19%25%

Dinamo Moskva II score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zenit 256%
×Draw19%
Dinamo Moskva II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
2.45
Dinamo Moskva II
1.61

Zenit 2 creates 52% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
2.67
Dinamo Moskva II
1.44

allows per match

Zenit 2
1.78
Dinamo Moskva II
2.22

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Dinamo Moskva II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
75%
Zenit 2 or Dinamo Moskva II
81%
Draw or Dinamo Moskva II
44%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
35%
Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
91%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
70%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
44%
Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
80%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
48%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
69%
Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Dinamo Moskva II away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.67 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.45

Dinamo Moskva II attack 1.44 + Zenit 2 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
56%
level
19%
Dinamo Moskva II scores more
25%

Zenit 2 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 91% of Zenit 2’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (91% and 67% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 82% of Zenit 2’s matches
  • 67% of Dinamo Moskva II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
2
LLWLW
II
LDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zenit 2 vs Dinamo Moskva II — Match Preview

Zenit 2 face Dinamo Moskva II on July 31, 2026 in this Second League A - Fall Season Silver fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.