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Dinamo Moskva II vs Zenit 2 — Second League - Group 2 2020

Dinamo Moskva II
Dinamo Moskva II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Zenit 2
Zenit 2
11/12/2023Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Dinamo Moskva II48%
×Draw23%
Zenit 229%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Moskva II
1.85
Zenit 2
1.39

Dinamo Moskva II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 80 away

creates per match

Dinamo Moskva II
2.35
Zenit 2
1.49

allows per match

Dinamo Moskva II
1.28
Zenit 2
1.35

finishing

Dinamo Moskva II+0.00on par
Zenit 2+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Moskva II ↓

Zenit 2 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Dinamo Moskva II or draw
71%
Dinamo Moskva II or Zenit 2
77%
Draw or Zenit 2
52%

Winning margin

Dinamo Moskva II wins by 2+
27%
Zenit 2 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dinamo Moskva II 1+ goals
84%
Dinamo Moskva II 2+ goals
55%
Dinamo Moskva II 3+ goals
28%
Zenit 2 1+ goals
75%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
40%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Moskva II (draw refunded)
62%
Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Moskva II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.28 · 68 matches

Zenit 2 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.35 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Moskva II attack 2.35 + Zenit 2 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.85

Zenit 2 attack 1.49 + Dinamo Moskva II defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dinamo Moskva II scores more
48%
level
23%
Zenit 2 scores more
29%

Dinamo Moskva II at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dinamo Moskva II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Moskva II vs Zenit 2

Zenit 2 beat Dinamo Moskva II 3-1 in Second League - Group 2 on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at UTB Novogorsk-Dynamo in Khimki.