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Zenit 2 vs Chita — Second League - Group 2 2020

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chita
Chita
10/9/2020Second League - Group 2Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Zenit 269%
×Draw19%
Chita13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
2.21
Chita
0.83

Zenit 2 creates 166% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 27 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
2.10
Chita
0.70

allows per match

Zenit 2
0.96
Chita
2.33

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Chita+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Chita →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
87%
Zenit 2 or Chita
81%
Draw or Chita
31%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
45%
Chita wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
89%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
65%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
38%
Chita 1+ goals
56%
Chita 2+ goals
20%
Chita 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
84%
Chita (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Chita away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.33 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.10 + Chita defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.21

Chita attack 0.70 + Zenit 2 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
69%
level
19%
Chita scores more
13%

Zenit 2 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zenit 2 3 – 0 Chita

Zenit 2 beat Chita 3-0 in Second League - Group 2 on October 9, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion SDYuShOR Smena in St. Petersburg.