Zenit 2 3–2 Chertanovo Moscow: Result & Stats

Zenit 2

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Chertanovo Moscow

I. Vakhaniya 82'

K. Stolbov 80'

A. Zakharov 3' (OG)

A. Konev 43'

E. Pankov 37'

5/8/2022

Second League - Group 2 · Group 2 - 2nd Phase - 6Stadion SDYuShOR Smena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Zenit 249%

×Draw23%

Chertanovo Moscow28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zenit 2Expected goals in this matchChertanovo Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.30

Zenit 2

1.81

Chertanovo Moscow

1.30

Zenit 2 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 66 away

2.10

creates per match

1.65

0.96

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Zenit 2

2.10

Chertanovo Moscow

1.65

allows per match

Zenit 2

0.96

Chertanovo Moscow

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par

Chertanovo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Chertanovo Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw

72%

Zenit 2 or Chertanovo Moscow

77%

Draw or Chertanovo Moscow

51%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+

27%

Chertanovo Moscow wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals

84%

Zenit 2 2+ goals

54%

Zenit 2 3+ goals

27%

Chertanovo Moscow 1+ goals

73%

Chertanovo Moscow 2+ goals

37%

Chertanovo Moscow 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)

64%

Chertanovo Moscow (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 82 matches

Chertanovo Moscow away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.52 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.10 + Chertanovo Moscow defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chertanovo Moscow attack 1.65 + Zenit 2 defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zenit 2 scores more

49%

level

23%

Chertanovo Moscow scores more

28%

Zenit 2 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

A. ZakharovOwn goal

12'

I. Moskalenchik← A. Kasimov

27'

37'

40'

40'

43'

46'

V. Masalskiy← N. Tereshchuk

62'

N. Pershin

68'

I. Andreev← E. Kim

68'

K. Stolbov← R. Nogtev

75'

M. Lyamzin← A. Zakharov

80'

K. Stolbov

82'

I. Vakhaniya

86'

P. Popov← K. Furman

90+2'

K. Fateev← M. Chernomyrdin

Zenit

Chertanovo

Yavorskiy

Bartasevi

🥅

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Radimov

12'▲I. Moskalenchik←▼A. Kasimov

46'▲V. Masalskiy←▼N. Tereshchuk

68'▲I. Andreev←▼E. Kim

68'▲K. Stolbov←▼R. Nogtev

90+2'▲K. Fateev←▼M. Chernomyrdin

Zenit 2 substitutes

MoskalenchikMasalskiyAndreevStolbovFateev

Manager: V. Shcherbak

75'▲M. Lyamzin←▼A. Zakharov

86'▲P. Popov←▼K. Furman

Chertanovo Moscow substitutes

LyamzinPopov