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Zenit 2 vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Zenit 2
Zenit 2
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
5/2/2026Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Spring Season Silver - 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Zenit 250%
×Draw21%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zenit 2
2.12
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.56

Zenit 2 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Zenit 2
2.67
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.33

allows per match

Zenit 2
1.78
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.56

finishing

Zenit 2+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zenit 2 ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zenit 2 or draw
71%
Zenit 2 or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
79%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz
50%

Winning margin

Zenit 2 wins by 2+
30%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zenit 2 1+ goals
88%
Zenit 2 2+ goals
62%
Zenit 2 3+ goals
35%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 1+ goals
79%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 2+ goals
46%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zenit 2 (draw refunded)
64%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zenit 2 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zenit 2 attack 2.67 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 2.12

Alaniya Vladikavkaz attack 1.33 + Zenit 2 defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zenit 2 scores more
50%
level
21%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz scores more
29%

Zenit 2 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zenit 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League A - Fall Season Silver: Zenit 2 4–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz

Zenit 2 beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz 4-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on May 2, 2026.