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Zemun vs Torlak — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Zemun
Zemun
FT
2 – 0
Torlak
Torlak
8/13/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 1Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Zemun57%
×Draw24%
Torlak19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemun
1.70
Torlak
0.87

Zemun creates 95% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 42 away

creates per match

Zemun
1.87
Torlak
1.21

allows per match

Zemun
0.53
Torlak
1.52

finishing

Zemun+0.00on par
Torlak+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemun ↓

Torlak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Zemun or draw
81%
Zemun or Torlak
76%
Draw or Torlak
43%

Winning margin

Zemun wins by 2+
32%
Torlak wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zemun 1+ goals
82%
Zemun 2+ goals
51%
Zemun 3+ goals
24%
Torlak 1+ goals
58%
Torlak 2+ goals
22%
Torlak 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zemun (draw refunded)
75%
Torlak (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemun at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Torlak away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.52 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemun attack 1.87 + Torlak defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.70

Torlak attack 1.21 + Zemun defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zemun scores more
57%
level
24%
Torlak scores more
19%

Zemun at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zemun vs Torlak

Zemun beat Torlak 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on August 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši in Zemun.