Zemun 2–1 Sindjelic Beograd: Result & Stats

Zemun

FT

2 – 1

Sindjelic Beograd

10/14/2023

Srpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 10Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zemun59%

×Draw25%

Sindjelic Beograd16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZemunExpected goals in this matchSindjelic Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.70

Zemun

1.62

Sindjelic Beograd

0.70

Zemun creates 131% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 49 away

1.87

creates per match

0.86

0.53

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Zemun

1.87

Sindjelic Beograd

0.86

allows per match

Zemun

0.53

Sindjelic Beograd

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zemun+0.00on par

Sindjelic Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemun ↓

Sindjelic Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zemun or draw

84%

Zemun or Sindjelic Beograd

75%

Draw or Sindjelic Beograd

41%

Winning margin

Zemun wins by 2+

33%

Sindjelic Beograd wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Zemun 1+ goals

80%

Zemun 2+ goals

48%

Zemun 3+ goals

22%

Sindjelic Beograd 1+ goals

50%

Sindjelic Beograd 2+ goals

16%

Sindjelic Beograd 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Zemun (draw refunded)

79%

Sindjelic Beograd (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemun at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Sindjelic Beograd away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.37 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemun attack 1.87 + Sindjelic Beograd defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.62

Sindjelic Beograd attack 0.86 + Zemun defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Zemun scores more

59%

level

25%

Sindjelic Beograd scores more

16%

Zemun at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff