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Zemun vs RAD — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Zemun
Zemun
FT
3 – 0
RAD
RAD
11/11/2023Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 14Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zemun76%
×Draw16%
RAD8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemun
2.30
RAD
0.60

Zemun creates 283% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zemun
1.87
RAD
0.67

allows per match

Zemun
0.53
RAD
2.73

finishing

Zemun+0.00on par
RAD+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemun ↓

RAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zemun or draw
92%
Zemun or RAD
84%
Draw or RAD
24%

Winning margin

Zemun wins by 2+
52%
RAD wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zemun 1+ goals
90%
Zemun 2+ goals
67%
Zemun 3+ goals
40%
RAD 1+ goals
45%
RAD 2+ goals
12%
RAD 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Zemun (draw refunded)
90%
RAD (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemun at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

RAD away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.73 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemun attack 1.87 + RAD defence 2.73 → ÷2 → 2.30

RAD attack 0.67 + Zemun defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Zemun scores more
76%
level
16%
RAD scores more
8%

Zemun at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Zemun 3–0 RAD

Zemun beat RAD 3-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši in Zemun.