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Zemun vs Prva Iskra — Srpska Liga - Belgrade 2019

Zemun
Zemun
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Prva Iskra
Prva Iskra
4/9/2022Srpska Liga - BelgradeSrpska Liga - Belgrade · Belgrade - 21Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zemun56%
×Draw24%
Prva Iskra20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemun
1.66
Prva Iskra
0.88

Zemun creates 89% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 71 away

creates per match

Zemun
1.87
Prva Iskra
1.23

allows per match

Zemun
0.53
Prva Iskra
1.44

finishing

Zemun+0.00on par
Prva Iskra+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemun ↓

Prva Iskra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Zemun or draw
80%
Zemun or Prva Iskra
76%
Draw or Prva Iskra
44%

Winning margin

Zemun wins by 2+
30%
Prva Iskra wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zemun 1+ goals
81%
Zemun 2+ goals
49%
Zemun 3+ goals
23%
Prva Iskra 1+ goals
59%
Prva Iskra 2+ goals
22%
Prva Iskra 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zemun (draw refunded)
74%
Prva Iskra (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemun at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.53 · 45 matches

Prva Iskra away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.44 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemun attack 1.87 + Prva Iskra defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.66

Prva Iskra attack 1.23 + Zemun defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zemun scores more
56%
level
24%
Prva Iskra scores more
20%

Zemun at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Belgrade: Zemun 2–0 Prva Iskra

Zemun beat Prva Iskra 2-0 in Srpska Liga - Belgrade on April 9, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši in Zemun.