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Zemun vs Proleter Novi SAD — Super Liga 2018

Zemun
Zemun
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Proleter Novi SAD
Proleter Novi SAD
3/6/2019Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 25Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši (Zemun)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zemun42%
×Draw29%
Proleter Novi SAD29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zemun
1.25
Proleter Novi SAD
0.99

Zemun creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 72 away

creates per match

Zemun
0.94
Proleter Novi SAD
0.81

allows per match

Zemun
1.17
Proleter Novi SAD
1.56

finishing

Zemun+0.00on par
Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zemun ↓

Proleter Novi SAD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zemun or draw
71%
Zemun or Proleter Novi SAD
71%
Draw or Proleter Novi SAD
58%

Winning margin

Zemun wins by 2+
19%
Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zemun 1+ goals
71%
Zemun 2+ goals
36%
Zemun 3+ goals
13%
Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals
63%
Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals
26%
Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zemun (draw refunded)
59%
Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zemun at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

Proleter Novi SAD away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.56 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zemun attack 0.94 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.25

Proleter Novi SAD attack 0.81 + Zemun defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Zemun scores more
42%
level
29%
Proleter Novi SAD scores more
29%

Zemun at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Zemun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Zemun 0–0 Proleter Novi SAD

Zemun and Proleter Novi SAD drew 0-0 in Super Liga on March 6, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion u Gornjoj Varoši (Zemun).