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Zell am See vs Bergheim — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Zell am See
Zell am See
FT
1 – 0
Bergheim
Bergheim
11/3/2019Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 14Alois Latini Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Zell am See73%
×Draw15%
Bergheim12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zell am See
2.73
Bergheim
1.00

Zell am See creates 173% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 37 away

creates per match

Zell am See
2.71
Bergheim
1.57

allows per match

Zell am See
0.43
Bergheim
2.76

finishing

Zell am See+0.00on par
Bergheim+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zell am See ↓

Bergheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zell am See or draw
88%
Zell am See or Bergheim
85%
Draw or Bergheim
27%

Winning margin

Zell am See wins by 2+
52%
Bergheim wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Zell am See 1+ goals
93%
Zell am See 2+ goals
75%
Zell am See 3+ goals
50%
Bergheim 1+ goals
63%
Bergheim 2+ goals
26%
Bergheim 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zell am See (draw refunded)
86%
Bergheim (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zell am See at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Bergheim away — creates 1.57, concedes 2.76 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zell am See attack 2.71 + Bergheim defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.73

Bergheim attack 1.57 + Zell am See defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Zell am See scores more
73%
level
15%
Bergheim scores more
12%

Zell am See at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Zell am See will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Salzburg: Zell am See 1–0 Bergheim

Zell am See beat Bergheim 1-0 in Landesliga - Salzburg on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Alois Latini Stadion in Zell am See.