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Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Velež — Premijer Liga 2019

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Velež
Velež
5/25/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 32Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo44%
×Draw28%
Velež28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.30
Velež
0.97

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 34% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 111 away

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.45
Velež
1.07

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.86
Velež
1.16

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par
Velež+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

Velež →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw
72%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Velež
72%
Draw or Velež
56%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+
20%
Velež wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals
73%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals
37%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals
14%
Velež 1+ goals
62%
Velež 2+ goals
25%
Velež 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)
61%
Velež (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 113 matches

Velež away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.16 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.45 + Velež defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Velež attack 1.07 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more
44%
level
28%
Velež scores more
28%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premijer Liga: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–1 Velež

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo beat Velež 2-1 in Premijer Liga on May 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Grbavica in Sarajevo.