Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2–1 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

10/19/2019

Premijer Liga · Round 13Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo58%

×Draw25%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zeljeznicar SarajevoExpected goals in this matchMladost Doboj Kakanj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

0.78

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.64

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.78

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 110% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 28 away

1.45

creates per match

0.71

0.86

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

1.45

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

0.71

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo

0.86

Mladost Doboj Kakanj

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par

Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw

82%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

75%

Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj

42%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+

32%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals

81%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals

49%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals

23%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals

54%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals

18%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)

77%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 113 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.45 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.71 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more

58%

level

25%

Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more

18%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff