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Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka — Premijer Liga 2019

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Borac Banja Luka
Borac Banja Luka
4/23/2025Premijer LigaPremijer Liga · Round 27Stadion Grbavica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo39%
×Draw28%
Borac Banja Luka33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.21
Borac Banja Luka
1.08

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo creates 12% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 109 away

creates per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
1.45
Borac Banja Luka
1.30

allows per match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
0.86
Borac Banja Luka
0.98

finishing

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo+0.00on par
Borac Banja Luka+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo ↓

Borac Banja Luka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or draw
67%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo or Borac Banja Luka
72%
Draw or Borac Banja Luka
61%

Winning margin

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo wins by 2+
17%
Borac Banja Luka wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 1+ goals
70%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 2+ goals
34%
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo 3+ goals
12%
Borac Banja Luka 1+ goals
66%
Borac Banja Luka 2+ goals
29%
Borac Banja Luka 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo (draw refunded)
54%
Borac Banja Luka (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.86 · 113 matches

Borac Banja Luka away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.98 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo attack 1.45 + Borac Banja Luka defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Borac Banja Luka attack 1.30 + Zeljeznicar Sarajevo defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo scores more
39%
level
28%
Borac Banja Luka scores more
33%

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Zeljeznicar Sarajevo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zeljeznicar Sarajevo vs Borac Banja Luka

Zeljeznicar Sarajevo beat Borac Banja Luka 2-1 in Premijer Liga on April 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Grbavica in Sarajevo.