Željezničar Banja Luka 1–3 Krupa na Vrbasu

Željezničar Banja Luka

FT

1 – 3

Krupa na Vrbasu

11/12/2022

1st League - RS · RS - 17Stadion FK Željezničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka34%

×Draw26%

Krupa na Vrbasu40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Željezničar Banja LukaExpected goals in this matchKrupa na Vrbasu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

1.40

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.26

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.40

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 11% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 39 away

1.88

creates per match

1.79

1.01

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.88

Krupa na Vrbasu

1.79

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka

1.01

Krupa na Vrbasu

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par

Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw

60%

Željezničar Banja Luka or Krupa na Vrbasu

74%

Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu

66%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+

15%

Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals

72%

Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals

36%

Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals

13%

Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals

75%

Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals

41%

Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)

46%

Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.26

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more

34%

level

26%

Krupa na Vrbasu scores more

40%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff