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Željezničar Banja Luka vs Kozara Gradiška — 1st League - RS 2019

Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
FT
4 – 1
Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
5/27/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 33Stadion FK Željezničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka57%
×Draw23%
Kozara Gradiška19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.78
Kozara Gradiška
0.93

Željezničar Banja Luka creates 91% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 104 away

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.88
Kozara Gradiška
0.84

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.01
Kozara Gradiška
1.68

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par
Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

Kozara Gradiška →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw
81%
Željezničar Banja Luka or Kozara Gradiška
77%
Draw or Kozara Gradiška
43%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
32%
Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
83%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
53%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
26%
Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
61%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
24%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
75%
Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Kozara Gradiška away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.68 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.78

Kozara Gradiška attack 0.84 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
57%
level
23%
Kozara Gradiška scores more
19%

Željezničar Banja Luka at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Željezničar Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Željezničar Banja Luka vs Kozara Gradiška

Željezničar Banja Luka beat Kozara Gradiška 4-1 in 1st League - RS on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Željezničar in Banja Luka.