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Željezničar Banja Luka vs Borac Kozarska Dubica — 1st League - RS 2019

Željezničar Banja Luka
Željezničar Banja Luka
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Borac Kozarska Dubica
Borac Kozarska Dubica
8/26/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 3Stadion FK Željezničar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Željezničar Banja Luka65%
×Draw20%
Borac Kozarska Dubica15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Željezničar Banja Luka
2.11
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.88

Željezničar Banja Luka creates 140% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 64 away

creates per match

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.88
Borac Kozarska Dubica
0.75

allows per match

Željezničar Banja Luka
1.01
Borac Kozarska Dubica
2.34

finishing

Željezničar Banja Luka+0.00on par
Borac Kozarska Dubica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Željezničar Banja Luka ↓

Borac Kozarska Dubica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Željezničar Banja Luka or draw
85%
Željezničar Banja Luka or Borac Kozarska Dubica
80%
Draw or Borac Kozarska Dubica
35%

Winning margin

Željezničar Banja Luka wins by 2+
41%
Borac Kozarska Dubica wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Željezničar Banja Luka 1+ goals
88%
Željezničar Banja Luka 2+ goals
62%
Željezničar Banja Luka 3+ goals
35%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 1+ goals
59%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 2+ goals
22%
Borac Kozarska Dubica 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Željezničar Banja Luka (draw refunded)
82%
Borac Kozarska Dubica (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Željezničar Banja Luka at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.01 · 88 matches

Borac Kozarska Dubica away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.34 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Željezničar Banja Luka attack 1.88 + Borac Kozarska Dubica defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.11

Borac Kozarska Dubica attack 0.75 + Željezničar Banja Luka defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Željezničar Banja Luka scores more
65%
level
20%
Borac Kozarska Dubica scores more
15%

Željezničar Banja Luka at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Željezničar Banja Luka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Željezničar Banja Luka vs Borac Kozarska Dubica

Željezničar Banja Luka beat Borac Kozarska Dubica 3-0 in 1st League - RS on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Željezničar in Banja Luka.