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Železničar Pančevo vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Železničar Pančevo
Železničar Pančevo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
1/22/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Železničar Pančevo31%
×Draw28%
Dinamo Makhachkala42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Železničar Pančevo
1.06
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.29

Dinamo Makhachkala creates 22% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.43
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30

allows per match

Železničar Pančevo
1.29
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.70

finishing

Železničar Pančevo+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Železničar Pančevo ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Železničar Pančevo or draw
58%
Železničar Pančevo or Dinamo Makhachkala
72%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
69%

Winning margin

Železničar Pančevo wins by 2+
12%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Železničar Pančevo 1+ goals
65%
Železničar Pančevo 2+ goals
29%
Železničar Pančevo 3+ goals
9%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
72%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
37%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Železničar Pančevo (draw refunded)
42%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Železničar Pančevo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 7 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 1.30, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Železničar Pančevo attack 1.43 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.06

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.30 + Železničar Pančevo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Železničar Pančevo scores more
31%
level
28%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
42%

Dinamo Makhachkala at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Dinamo Makhachkala will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Železničar Pančevo vs Dinamo Makhachkala

Železničar Pančevo beat Dinamo Makhachkala 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 22, 2026.