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Zeleznicar Inđija vs RFK Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
RFK Novi Sad
RFK Novi Sad
4/16/2025Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Stadion Leje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija64%
×Draw20%
RFK Novi Sad16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.17
RFK Novi Sad
0.98

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 121% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.42
RFK Novi Sad
1.07

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
0.89
RFK Novi Sad
1.93

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par
RFK Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

RFK Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw
84%
Zeleznicar Inđija or RFK Novi Sad
80%
Draw or RFK Novi Sad
36%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
41%
RFK Novi Sad wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
89%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
64%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
36%
RFK Novi Sad 1+ goals
62%
RFK Novi Sad 2+ goals
26%
RFK Novi Sad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
80%
RFK Novi Sad (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

RFK Novi Sad away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + RFK Novi Sad defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.17

RFK Novi Sad attack 1.07 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
64%
level
20%
RFK Novi Sad scores more
16%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zeleznicar Inđija vs RFK Novi Sad

Zeleznicar Inđija beat RFK Novi Sad 3-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Leje in Inđija.