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Zeleznicar Inđija vs Podunavac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
FT
3 – 2
Podunavac
Podunavac
10/19/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Stadion Leje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija56%
×Draw23%
Podunavac21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeleznicar Inđija
1.87
Podunavac
1.06

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 76% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.42
Podunavac
1.23

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
0.89
Podunavac
1.32

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par
Podunavac+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Podunavac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw
79%
Zeleznicar Inđija or Podunavac
77%
Draw or Podunavac
44%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
32%
Podunavac wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
85%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
56%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
29%
Podunavac 1+ goals
65%
Podunavac 2+ goals
29%
Podunavac 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
73%
Podunavac (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Podunavac away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.32 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Podunavac defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.87

Podunavac attack 1.23 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
56%
level
23%
Podunavac scores more
21%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Zeleznicar Inđija 3–2 Podunavac

Zeleznicar Inđija beat Podunavac 3-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Leje in Inđija.