Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zeleznicar Inđija vs Kabel Novi Sad — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
FT
5 – 0
Kabel Novi Sad
Kabel Novi Sad
3/17/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Stadion Đačko igralište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija60%
×Draw22%
Kabel Novi Sad18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeleznicar Inđija
1.89
Kabel Novi Sad
0.91

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 108% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.42
Kabel Novi Sad
0.93

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
0.89
Kabel Novi Sad
1.36

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par
Kabel Novi Sad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

Kabel Novi Sad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw
82%
Zeleznicar Inđija or Kabel Novi Sad
78%
Draw or Kabel Novi Sad
40%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
36%
Kabel Novi Sad wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
85%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
56%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
29%
Kabel Novi Sad 1+ goals
60%
Kabel Novi Sad 2+ goals
23%
Kabel Novi Sad 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
77%
Kabel Novi Sad (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Kabel Novi Sad away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + Kabel Novi Sad defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.89

Kabel Novi Sad attack 0.93 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
60%
level
22%
Kabel Novi Sad scores more
18%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Zeleznicar Inđija 5–0 Kabel Novi Sad

Zeleznicar Inđija beat Kabel Novi Sad 5-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Đačko igralište in Novi Sad.