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Zeleznicar Inđija vs 1. Maj Ruma — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Zeleznicar Inđija
Zeleznicar Inđija
FT
4 – 1
1. Maj Ruma
1. Maj Ruma
4/10/2024Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 22Stadion Đačko igralište

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Zeleznicar Inđija62%
×Draw21%
1. Maj Ruma17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.07
1. Maj Ruma
0.98

Zeleznicar Inđija creates 111% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 72 away

creates per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
2.42
1. Maj Ruma
1.06

allows per match

Zeleznicar Inđija
0.89
1. Maj Ruma
1.72

finishing

Zeleznicar Inđija+0.00on par
1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zeleznicar Inđija ↓

1. Maj Ruma →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zeleznicar Inđija or draw
83%
Zeleznicar Inđija or 1. Maj Ruma
79%
Draw or 1. Maj Ruma
38%

Winning margin

Zeleznicar Inđija wins by 2+
38%
1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zeleznicar Inđija 1+ goals
87%
Zeleznicar Inđija 2+ goals
61%
Zeleznicar Inđija 3+ goals
34%
1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals
62%
1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals
26%
1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zeleznicar Inđija (draw refunded)
78%
1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zeleznicar Inđija at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

1. Maj Ruma away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.72 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zeleznicar Inđija attack 2.42 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 2.07

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.06 + Zeleznicar Inđija defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Zeleznicar Inđija scores more
62%
level
21%
1. Maj Ruma scores more
17%

Zeleznicar Inđija at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Zeleznicar Inđija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Zeleznicar Inđija 4–1 1. Maj Ruma

Zeleznicar Inđija beat 1. Maj Ruma 4-1 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on April 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Đačko igralište in Novi Sad.